BC Premier Predictions: We Look at the Remaining Schedule and Rate the Team Chances for Playoff Spots
We went through the remaining schedule, weighed the difficulty of the remaining team schedules and came up with our playoff predictions. Check back in April to see if it was close.
Basically we think the season will end Ravens, UBC, Burnaby, CW, JBAA, Caps getting the playoff spots. CW will host JBAA in one quarter and Burnaby host Caps in the other. Then the semis to see Burnaby travel to UBC and CW to Ravens. Likely a UBC v Ravens final but Burnaby and CW with strong chances to change that.
A lot of variables, CW always prone to call ups for national players, key injuries always a factor for every team, UVic also have players called into the national squad, then there's the possibility of more MLR signings waiting to happen. Here is our form guide.
6 games left for Ravens, 4 at home. They've already played Burnaby and UBC twice so they have a fairly light remaining schedule, their toughest match may be the last one on the road to Seattle. They should be able to get 25 points out of the last quarter if they stay healthy. They have 57 points currently so around 82 points by the end we think, they are slight favourites to finish ahead of UBC by a slim margin and take top league honours. There's no clear playoff advantage to finishing 1st or 2nd in the league, both get home semis. Prediction: 82 points.
5 more games for UBC, 2 at home, 3 on the road. They have 2 tough away matches CW and JBAA, and one tough home stand against Burnaby. Those 3 games are up in the air. They currently sit at 60 and will hit 70 for sure, worst case scenario. They likely will win 2 of the 3 tough matches but maybe not bonus points, so we'll say 78 points +/-3 for them at the end. Prediction: 78 points.
6 games for Burnaby, 3 at home, 3 on the road. The away games to CW and UBC will be the killers. So 20 points likely and they'll have to scrap for anything out of the remaining 10. We'll say they'll win one of the CW/UBC matches but without a BP so 24 more points approximately. They currently have 51 so 75 points to finish sounds about right. Prediction: 75 points.
CW have 7 games left, 4 of them on the road, so a whopping 35 points on offer. They currently sit at 46 so with a perfect run they could hit 81 points and challenge for a top two spot. Those home matches against UBC and Burnaby are looming large. If they win both of those then we'd predict a top 2 finish. There's also a road trip to Seattle which can cause problems for teams. So a sure +20, 15 points to scrap for, split the difference and say 28 points to finish the season and 74 points to finish. Prediction: 74 points.
7 games, 4 away, 3 home currently sitting at 34 points. They play the top 3 teams, UBC, Ravens and Burnaby, only UBC at home so they have a tough path. They have given UBC problems at MacDonald Park with a physical approach so the game has potential. The two on the road may be more difficult. We like them for the other 4 matches so say a baseline of 20 points, with maybe 4 points out of the other 3 matches for 24 points. Prediction: 58 points.
They have 6 matches left, potential for 30 points max, 4 of the games are home. The 4 home games are against teams ranked lower than them currently, so a good shot at 20 more points, the James Bay game will be the toughest home match, likely a 4 point win or 1 point loss. We're predicting 16-19 more points for Caps so their final tally would be 52 to 55 points. Prediction: 55
Seattle always tougher at home, some variation in their roster make them difficult to predict and then the Seawolves factor, players migrating perhaps? Only 5 matches left for a max of 25 points and currently sitting at 33 points. Best they can do is 58 points. Four of those matches are at home and two of those are against top 4 teams CW and Ravens. First they have to get past Caps on the road this weekend then it's all home cooking. Don't think they'll go 25 of 25, we'll give them 20. Prediction: 53 points.
7 matches, only 2 at home however and Vikes do play better at home. We think they'll win 3 of their games, they can put up the points, so 15 plus a few losing BP will give them +18. Currently sitting at 24. Prediction: 42 points.
6 games left, 4 on the road. They currently sit at 21 points. They have a good chance of winning 3 of the 6, maybe a BP in one of the losses, we'll say +16. Prediction: 37 points.
7 games, 4 home, that's the good news. Bad news is first 3 home games against top 4 teams, Ravens, CW, UBC. They'll be hard pressed to win those. Then a tough road trip to Seattle. If they can come out of those 4 games with 10 points be good but more likely 5 points. It becomes a little more manageable after that with UVic, Lomas and James Bay. We'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say another 10 points, so 15 more on top of their exiting 21. Prediction: 36 points.
6 games left, 3 on the road, 3 at home. They've only won 2 against Caps and Seattle. They play Caps again but on the road this time, their home match vs Lomas best bet for a win. We'll give them +6 points, a win and a couple of BP to finish the season. Prediction: 18 points.
CURRENT STANDINGS (click to enlarge image)